Russia Invades

[Dark Cloud]

AFP reporting that an ammo depo has been blown up over the Russian border

Hope they haven't used HIMARS or the US will be spitting feathers!!! (Still good to see though!!! )

[Lowbankclaret]

Just another pointer to how it’s going, these are all the little things I read that says it’s not going well, might not be true, but they all cannot be true.

https://twitter.com/piotr_butowski/stat ... yxkAs8nOFQ

[Lowbankclaret]

I read an article once which suggested they have around 250,000 contracted military with the remainder being conscripted. If I am honest I have no idea how many Russian troops are deployed around the the world in places like Syria but I would imagine that the vast majority of there pro army have either tasted a bit of Ukraine already or are deployed and can’t be moved. I agree that they are short hence the extra conscription but not short on overall numbers per say just the right type of soldier

Peter Zeihan on a podcast in the last couple of weeks said Russia had 6.8 million men between 20 and 30, now you can call them up, but you literally kill your future as they are the men that will father your new generation.
Russias demographics is being hit hard by this war, call up mOre young people it gets worse.

[NewClaret]

Hope they haven't used HIMARS or the US will be spitting feathers!!! (Still good to see though!!! )

That was my first thought.

Had a very quick look at the map and if it’s the one I posted shortly after, it’s actually next to a Northern part that Ukraine now control, quite close to the border. Makes you wonder why the hell Russia would leave an ammo dump where it can be easily hit instead of moving them away from the border or further south out of harms way.

[NewClaret]

Just another pointer to how it’s going, these are all the little things I read that says it’s not going well, might not be true, but they all cannot be true.

https://twitter.com/piotr_butowski/stat ... yxkAs8nOFQ

Well if that’s true (and they are using oldest gear first), they’re in a bit of a pickle. They fired 80 of those didn’t they? And only half hit. They may only have enough for one more attack like that.

[Lowbankclaret]

Two clips from Russian TV , both suggest they are reading the room the same as many of us are.
They are in the ****, we know it, they know it, only person who doesn’t is Putin.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

[Colburn_Claret]

Two clips from Russian TV , both suggest they are reading the room the same as many of us are.
They are in the ****, we know it, they know it, only person who doesn’t is Putin.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

Nice viewing.
The best hope for peace is for Russians to realise the truth of what is happening. They might still be living in cloud cuckoo land as to the justification of this 'military operation', but at least they are starting to wake up to the disaster they've created.
They do like to make scapegoats of every man and his dog as well. It isn't going to encourage anybody to take the lead in sorting the mess out.

[Lancasterclaret]

Thread on the Russian response to the Kerch Bridge bombing, and how it is completely counter productive and will result in even less chance of Russia ever achieving air superiority over Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/stat ... 4949152769

[Lancasterclaret]

Two clips from Russian TV , both suggest they are reading the room the same as many of us are.
They are in the ****, we know it, they know it, only person who doesn’t is Putin.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/stat ... oYlazq8Nig

I haven't seen the 2nd one (limited time this morning!) but the 1st one is absolutely up in the air delusional

You have to assume that these discussions going down that way are state supported, and they are essentially asking for "air gravity weapons" to be used all over Ukraine

I assume that means bombs, and the chances of Russia gaining air superiority over Ukraine anytime soon so they can bomb at will are essentially nil

I think the only conclusion that you can draw is that Russia thinks it can negotiate and hold on to its annexed four provinces and I think (in a war full of Russian mis calculations) this probably the most delusional take yet

Its very depressing

[Lowbankclaret]

Thread on the Russian response to the Kerch Bridge bombing, and how it is completely counter productive and will result in even less chance of Russia ever achieving air superiority over Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/stat ... 4949152769

Just read that and was going to post a link as it’s an interesting thread.

[Lowbankclaret]

A thread about Elon Musks starlink, added this due to the debate going about Must turning it off and claiming he cannot afford to keep giving it for free.

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/15808 ... BV5pQrv5yQ

[Lowbankclaret]

I think I posted yesterday about a group of Russian conscripts shooting their commander who was refusing to let them surrender, there are now pictures of the group surrendering. Not going to post the link as you can see faces and I think that’s against the Geneva convention. But it’s more info adding to this story possibly being true.

[Hipper]

Thread on the Russian response to the Kerch Bridge bombing, and how it is completely counter productive and will result in even less chance of Russia ever achieving air superiority over Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/stat ... 4949152769

Putin's strategy seems to be to destroy the morale of the Ukrainian people by blasting them into negotiating whilst at the same time offering olive branches to weaken the resolve of his European supporters in the form of renewing gas supplies.

I guess he has a low opinion of The West but this seems unbelievably stupid - or desperate.

It's the 'desperate' that worries me. He's running out of options.

[Hipper]

That was my first thought.

Had a very quick look at the map and if it’s the one I posted shortly after, it’s actually next to a Northern part that Ukraine now control, quite close to the border. Makes you wonder why the hell Russia would leave an ammo dump where it can be easily hit instead of moving them away from the border or further south out of harms way.

Belgorad has apparently been attacked before, including quite early in the war - this oil depot:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60953243

[Lowbankclaret]

We discussed Russias missiles and that they might be running out, here is a graphic showing what they have left.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/sta ... BV5pQrv5yQ

[Lowbankclaret]

Interesting development in the capital, this report states that men are given mobilisation papers as they enter a rail station, random selection by the police. Like wow.

https://twitter.com/alexkokcharov/statu ... BV5pQrv5yQ

[bfcjg]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580683179177824256
And this is shat they can look forward to.

[Lowbankclaret]

I very long and well reasoned argument on the bridge explosion. Passes the straight face test, gets me behind the lorry explosion theory.

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... -uCtY-ksjw

[Hipper]

I very long and well reasoned argument on the bridge explosion. Passes the straight face test, gets me behind the lorry explosion theory.

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... -uCtY-ksjw

In the comments it mentions a second explosion. I noticed this too but I now think it might be a railway wagon exploding due to the intense heat of the initial explosion.

This was posted earlier by LancasterClaret with the same conclusion but a bit more info on how it might have been arranged.

https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202165838413824

All in all they both seem to offer a plausible scenario.

[Lowbankclaret]

This young lad is obviously up for going to Ukraine, surely you cannot keep doing this and no one starting to complain.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... gBMbeMiiaA

[bfcjg]

If they treat their own citizens like that is it any wonder the Ukrainians fight like demons.

[welsbyswife]

Poor lad barely looked old enough to shave. Absolutely shameful that those in power are happy for young men to go off and die whilst they sit in comfort miles from the front line.

[Lowbankclaret]

So after watching loads of stuff on Russias missiles, my thoughts.
The other day Russia fired around 90 missiles at Ukraine, of which around 50% got through. Many of those that got through, missed any real target of help to the Russian aims.
Suddenly the west who seemed reluctant to send in air defence systems, now are sending in quite a lot.

Russia it’s claimed now has 600 rockets left, give it few weeks and less than 20% will get through the air defence systems. Plus drones and fixed wing plus helicopters are in even more danger than they were before.

Ther have been calls to shut down the air space from the beginning.

This effectively does the same.

Another Putin own goal.

Still going for an end February end to this.

[Dark Cloud]

Surely you can conscript 300,000 chaps into the army if you really want to, but if they are poorly trained, equipped, fed and protected and more importantly if they're hearts really aren't in it, then the minute the bullets start flying they are either going to run or surrender (or more likely die) So actually, they aren't much use and the whole thing is utterly pointless.

[Lowbankclaret]

Surely you can conscript 300,000 chaps into the army if you really want to, but if they are poorly trained, equipped, fed and protected and more importantly if they're hearts really aren't in it, then the minute the bullets start flying they are either going to run or surrender (or more likely die) So actually, they aren't much use and the whole thing is utterly pointless.

Correct, but when your mates, friends work colleagues return dead in just a couple of weeks, that really hits home and that’s starting to happen now. Suddenly it’s becomes real and for what, a few miles of land ypu have never been too, nor want to.

[Burnley1989]

Surely you can conscript 300,000 chaps into the army if you really want to, but if they are poorly trained, equipped, fed and protected and more importantly if they're hearts really aren't in it, then the minute the bullets start flying they are either going to run or surrender (or more likely die) So actually, they aren't much use and the whole thing is utterly pointless.

Yeah but that 300k would be worth 10k trained troops, you know yourself you can be with 10 mates on a night out and 1-2 lads kick off with you and at least 6-7 won’t fancy it and will run off

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: An FSB officer and a "Wagner" PMC mercenary have requested political asylum in France

They will help the investigation of Russia's war crimes, reveal the corruption schemes of the FSB and PMC "Wagner", said founder of Gulagu.net Vladimir Osechkin.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/158 ... 76Dz1slgBg

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/newly-mobilis ... 15946.html
The Kremlin can spin the PR all they like,dead recruits returning to loved ones cuts through the crap. There will be more unrest in the coming weeks which is why Putin might be softening his rhetoric according to this report.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-no ... 38897.html

[ClaretAndLube]

“Yeah but that 300k would be worth 10k trained troops, you know yourself you can be with 10 mates on a night out and 1-2 lads kick off with you and at least 6-7 won’t fancy it and will run off”


I know most of Dark Cloud’s mates and I can tell you now that all 10 would run off.

[bfcjg]

Wish I had 10 mates

[Jellybean]

We're all friends on here bfcjg
Thanks all as ever for the updates and insight, I find myself living in hope each morning that there will be some good news reported on here, well as good as it can be given the horrors happening

[Lowbankclaret]

I have joined Speak the truths Patreon, as he puts on more videos and quicker content.
On there this morning he is saying the counteroffensive has started again in the south.

He has contact in Ukraine, so it’s very likely true, another subscriber has said Russian telegram has gone mental. Which normally means it’s not going well.

Let’s see how it develops over the next 48 hours.

[Salukem]

Dark Cloud would struggle to find 10 mates but there is one certainty he would be at the front of the lads running off !!

[Lowbankclaret]

Some people are getting brave seeing Russias weakness. Wonder how long this leader will be alive.

https://twitter.com/peter__leonard/stat ... MfaUeL5Obg

[NewClaret]

Some people are getting brave seeing Russias weakness. Wonder how long this leader will be alive.

https://twitter.com/peter__leonard/stat ... MfaUeL5Obg

How do you know what he said without subtitles?

[bfcjg]

How do you know what he said without subtitles?

There are sub titles further into the tweet.

[NewClaret]

There are sub titles further into the tweet.

Thanks, hadn’t seen that. The rant seems to be about investment?

Agree it’s a brave move to berate Putin in public though. I’d stay away from windows, if I were him.

[Lowbankclaret]

How do you know what he said without subtitles?

Apologies, I had seen with with subtitles earlier and just linked that one thinking it would have sub titles. He is having a rant about getting respect from Russia, he believes his country deserves it and some investment. Doing that to Putin in public, very very brave.

[NewClaret]

No probs mate, just thought you’d learned Russian for a mo

Thing is with all this, once one breaks ranks you get a snowball effect. To the point other leaders look weak if they don’t speak out.

You sense the beginning of the end for Putin, for sure.

[Dark Cloud]

Dark Cloud would struggle to find 10 mates but there is one certainty he would be at the front of the lads running off !!

Oh dear, oh dear. Some people have been in the pub since early and when they really should have stayed on the play station!
And just for the record, bloody right I'd be running off if I was dressed in Russian battle fatigues with the bloody Ukrainians just coming over the hill. Like Burnley v Swansea it's men against boys and so one sided it's embarrassing!

[Taffy on the wing]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/worl ... ussia.html

This is why Putin MUST be defeated & decisively!

[bfcjg]

Going well.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russia-11-sho ... 51949.html

[NewClaret]

Going well.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russia-11-sho ... 51949.html

A staggering story. If all those hit died, it’d be 26 deaths.

More news of this, commanders being shot, etc, the more discipline will collapse.

[ClaretLoup]

Putin seeking closer ties with the Taliban.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/puti ... han-assets

[Hipper]

Putin seeking closer ties with the Taliban.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/puti ... han-assets

Why doesn't just invade them. That would make it much easier for the Russians to help them as they are doing in Ukraine.

[Lowbankclaret]

An interesting thread on the state of Russias Nukes.

https://twitter.com/igor_from_kyiv_/sta ... FL3SYCYGSg

[bfcjg]

Regarding Putin and the Taliban, what's the saying ? "Birds of a feather flock together".
North Korea,Syria,the Taliban and Russia. Quite shameful.

[Colburn_Claret]

An interesting thread on the state of Russias Nukes.

https://twitter.com/igor_from_kyiv_/sta ... FL3SYCYGSg

I have absolutely no knowledge of this, but I have felt for a long time, that any army that can fail to take care of its equipment, the way the Russian Army does, is going to be the same regarding Nuclear weapons.
Arrogant, lazy, self important, dishonest, over confident, ill disciplined, corrupt, scapegoating, deniers. The list of words to describe the Russian Military are endless, and not flattering.
With no proof whatsoever, I believe that the Russian nuclear capability is as poor as their ground forces. Lots of them, but either not working, or useless if they do.

[bfcjg]

Putin mobilisation chief found dead in 'suspicious’ circumstances as tyrant calls off disastrous conscription plan https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20117976/ ... harebaramp
Hmmmm

[LeadBelly]

An interesting thread on the state of Russias Nukes.

https://twitter.com/igor_from_kyiv_/sta ... FL3SYCYGSg

The Spectator also had an article yesterday; not sure if this is behind a paywall (some things on Spectator's site certainly are) https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we- ... red-button

key bits are:
Ironically, launching the kind of strategic nuclear missiles whose use would likely spiral into global destruction is somewhat easier than deploying the smaller weapons which – however vastly unlikely – could conceivably be used in Ukraine. These lower-yield warheads would need to be reconditioned in one of the 12 'Object S' arsenals across Russia holding them, and then transported to one of 34 'base-level storage depots'. From there they would need to be loaded onto a bomber or mated onto a suitable other delivery system.

Given that Russia has not even used them since 1990, no one knows for sure what state they would be in, and likely no one still in service has any practical experience. There would presumably be a group of wary engineers gingerly thumbing their way through faded instruction manuals long before Putin could even give a fire order.

What this also means is that were Putin somehow to go full Dr Strangelove, there are many other human beings in the chain of command. The defence minister and chief of the general staff could refuse to authenticate the order. However, they might authenticate it, or Putin could appeal directly to the General Staff. Nevertheless, while he may have the legal authority to launch nuclear weapons, the officers in question may cavil, delay or consider whether his decision conforms to official doctrine. This, after all, sees their use strictly reserved for cases where the Motherland is under direct, existential threat.